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with human technology to
light up
the Earth at night,
and
to turn low-Earth-orbit into a
space junkyard of debris
that may
have brought down Space Shuttle Columbia on 1
February 2003;
and
to consume Cetaceans,
Rain Forests,
and Fish
( 1958-1980 fish graphic adapated from Ransom A.
Myers & Boris Worm (Nature
423 (15 MAY 2003) 280-283), who say: "... Industrialized fisheries
typically reduced community biomass by 80% within 15 years of
exploitation. Compensatory increases in fast-growing species were
observed, but often reversed within a decade. ... the global ocean
has lost more than 90% of large predatory fishes. ...[as
indicated by the above graphic showing]... Spatial patterns of
relative predator biomass in ...1958 ... and ... 1980 ... Colour
codes depict the number of fish caught per 100 hooks on pelagic
longlines set by the Japanese fleet. ...". See also the book Empty
Ocean, by Richard Ellis (Island Press (2003), and a 25 May 2003
review in The
New York Times by Thurston Clarke, who
says: "... Ellis writes in summary, ''... the rampant destruction
of the ocean floor and its endemic fauna is one of the greatest
environmental disasters in history, and it is occurring virtually
unnoticed.'' ...". ),
and, as of around 1997, an unsustainable exponential growth of
Global population and USA stock market values:
What about the Distant Future of Humanity?
If the population of Earth were to be stabilized at about 10^10
(10 billion) people (using data from The World Almanac 2001) that
would be is about 100 people per square kilometer,
- or about 3 times the persent population density of the
USA,
- or about the present population density of China,
- or about a third of the present population density of Japan or
India,
- or about a tenth the present population density of
Bangladesh.
If that population consumed enough energy to maintain a USA-type
standard of living by using energy at the same rate as the present
USA, that would be about 100 Q (quadrillion BTU, or 10^15 BTU), or
about 300 x 10^11 kw-hours (kilowatt-hours), for each year, for about
3 x 10^8 (300 million) people, or about 10^5 kw-hours/year per
person
for a total energy consumption for all 10^10 people per year of
about 10^5 x 10^10 = 10^16 kw-hours/year = 3 x 10^4 Q/year.
Using about 10,000 hours in a year as an approximation to about
8,766 hours in a year:
1 Q = 3 x 10^11 kw-hours = 3 x 10^14 watt-hours = 300 x 10^12
watt-hours = 300 Terawatt-hours = 300 x 10^(-4) Terawatt-years = (
1/30 ) Terawatt-years
so that the total energy consumption for all 10^10 people per year
would be about 3 x 10^4 Q/year = 10^3 Terawatt-years/year.
Using total Earth energy reserves in Terawatt-years, according to
M. Taube, in his book Evolution of Matter and Energy on a Cosmic and
Planetary Scale (Springer-Verlag 1985), the number of years that
10^10 people could consume energy at the present USA per capita rate,
a consumption rate of about 1,000 Terawatt-years/year, is:
Reserves Duration
(Terawatt-years) (years)
Oil 850 1
Gas 550 1
Methane 1,500 2
Coal 7,000 7
Uranium 1.9 X 10^9 2,000,000
(1/1000 of
Earth supply)
Thorium 7.9 x 10^9 8,000,000
(1/1000 of
Earth supply)
Deuterium 1.9 x 10^9 2,000,000
(1/1000 of
ocean supply)
Lithium 1.9 x 10^9 2,000,000
(source of
tritium)
As to solar energy, the total solar energy received by Earth is
about 109,000 Terawatt-years/year so that 10^10 people could consume
energy at the present USA per capita rate by using about 1% (one
percent) of the solar energy received by Earth. This could be done,
for example, by building a lot of orbiting solar energy collection
dishes and beaming the energy to Earth.
The total geothermal heat flux is about 66 Terawatt-years/year,
and the total tidal energy is about 3 Terawatt-years/year, so that
those sources would be inadequate to support 10^10 people consuming
energy at the present USA per capita rate.
Compare the energy that Quantum
Consciousnesses might be able to obtain from Earth's
Oceans by Cold Fusion or Proton
Annihilation.
Based on the above, it is my opinion that, for humanity to have a
happy distant future on Earth, it is necessary that :
1 - population of Earth must stabilize at somewhere
around 10 billion, so if we want to have more people than that, we
need to migrate to space
colonies;
2 - fossil fuels must
be phased out soon;
3 - safe nuclear
(fission and/or fusion) must be built soon, to get us through the
next few million years;
5 - solar energy collection can keep 10 billion people
happy on Earth until the sun expands about a billion years from
now.
What about beyond a billion (10^9) years?
- after about 10^9 years, the Sun will have
expanded to sterilize the Earth and Mars will have a nice climate
for humans.
- after about 3 x 10^9 years, the
Milky Way and Andromeda collide and the Sun is either thrown clear
of the combined galaxies or eventually falling into the combined
galactic center;
- after about 4 x 10^9 years, the
Milky Way and Andromeda will be merged into an elliptical galaxy
with the merger causing a few supernovae per year;
- after about 7 x 10^9 years, the Sun will
be a red giant, melting the ice of Jupiter's moon Europa;
- after about 10^14 years, the last red
dwarf stars die;
- after about 10^16 years, most planets have
left their stars;
- after about 10^20 years, most stars and
planets have left their galaxies;
- after about 10^29 years, black holes will
have accreted stars (mostly white dwarfs and neutron stars) in
galaxies);
- after about 10^31 years, protons will
have decayed by SU(5) GUT processes;
- after about 10^32 years, black holes will
have accreted stars in clusters;
- after about 10^64 years, protons will have
decayed by quantum gravitational processes;
- after about 10^68 years, black holes will
be the dominant form of mass;
- after about 10^100 years, black holes will
have decayed to positronium, which itself will decay, and quantum
fluctuations could create new universes;
Note that Humanity must become Extra-Terrestrial
in order to grow beyond a population of about 10 billion and to
survive more than a billion years.
Click Here for
References.
Click Here for History prior to 1998.
excerpts from Rudyard Kipling - The Gods of the Copybook
Headings:
As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper protestations to the Gods of the
Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and
fall.
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them
all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in
turn.
That water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly
burn:
...
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had
Wings.
So we worshiped the Gods of the Market Who promised these
beautiful things.
...
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money
could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: 'If
you don't work you die.'
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tounged
wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to belive it
was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make
Four---
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once
more
...
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter
return!
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